The Fund then released a staff report capturing discussions between its visiting delegation and the Kenya government representatives.

From the report, there is a discernible change of tone in the Fund’s assessment of Kenya’s monetary health between now and in March 2018 when a delegation visited to firm up discussions on stand-by arrangements between the Fund and the government for some sort of insurance against “balance of payment” shocks.

In a separate consultancy report done by the Fund but commissioned by the National Treasury, it says that Kenya’s fiscal forecasts lacks credibility.

Nonetheless, the Fund has escalated Kenya’s risk of debt distress from medium to high on account of susceptibility to export and market financing shocks (all Covid-19 related).

Surprisingly, in its 2018 debt sustainability analysis, the Fund was full of praise for the infrastructure projects, noting that “such planned investment in infrastructure will be critical to raise growth and export potential, both of which will support Kenya’s external debt to reduce external debt distress, the Fund, in 2018, expected the government to refinance loans at a longer maturity within a year to limit refinancing risks.