With popular frustrations running high, and opposition leader Agathon Rwasa warning that he will not accept a "stolen" election, fears are mounting that a contested poll could lead to violence along the lines of what the country saw in 2015, when Nkurunziza's controversial bid for a third term prompted street protests, a failed coup, a crackdown and the exodus of over 400,000 people.

It now also appears that the EAC will be unable to send an observation team in time for the elections; Burundi's authorities have cited the COVID-19 outbreak as a reason to quarantine the observers for fourteen days upon arrival, though it is unclear whether the decision was genuinely made for legitimate public health reasons, given that the government has otherwise played down the outbreak.

Ruling-party nominee Ndayishimiye and long-time opposition leader Rwasa, who both fought as rebels in Burundi's 1993-2005 civil war, are the clear front runners, and emblematic of the former fighters' continued influence in national politics.

They say Nkurunziza, who pushed for the selection of his ally Pascal Nyabenda, the president of the National Assembly (the lower chamber of Burundi's parliament), only agreed to Ndayishimiye's candidacy after intense lobbying by generals.

While Rwasa has announced that he will not allow the election to be "stolen", CNDD-FDD officials believe that their party structures and ability to register and mobilise voters across the country cannot but deliver victory.

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