A comprehensive trade deal between the No. 1 economy in the world and the No. 67 economy in the world could potentially spur economic growth and improve living standards in Kenya but, from every indication, is fraught with major problems, perils, and pitfalls for Kenya and regional integration efforts in Africa.

With rising food insecurity in Kenya, devastating effects of climate change, and on-going negotiations of Phase II of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA) this is arguably the worst time for Kenya to embark on a comprehensive trade deal that guarantees duty-free market access to the largest economy in the world.

Before embarking on any trade talks, it is imperative that Nairobi carry out a meaningful scoping assessment, engage in open and broad consultation with stakeholders regarding trade priorities and objectives, and based on consultation, decide whether it makes sense to enter into trade talks with the US at this time and if so, publish its negotiation objectives.

Based on the US negotiating objectives and given the US emphasis on “regulatory compatibility” and “strong enforcement” of trade deals, a Kenya-US trade deal has the potential to impermissibly encroach on Kenya’s domestic policy space, impose a costly administrative burden on Kenya, erode hard-won World Trade Organisation (WTO) flexibilities, particularly regarding public health and impose WTO-extra and WTO-plus disciplines that Kenya is neither ready for nor able to implement.

Reimagining trade policies requires that Nairobi reject any pressure to base negotiation on US model agreements or recent FTAs that the US has concluded.

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